South Africa’s agricultural trade policy now sits under scrutiny as the country prepares to exit the African Growth and Opportunity Act. Government faces mounting pressure to explain how the sector was represented in negotiations with Washington, and what strategy it will pursue once preferential access lapses on 1 January 2027.
The accountability question sits at the centre of the debate. Dr Christiaan Mostert, an agricultural economics lecturer at the University of Pretoria, said the development represented a serious setback for the sector and called on government to account for its handling of the matter. “The government should explain how the agricultural sector was considered during the negotiations. A workable agreement with the United States is urgently required for the sector,” he said.
Additional reference context is available at https://thenational.co.za/news/2026-11-07-south-african-agriculture-urged-to-diversify-markets-after-us-agoa-withdrawal/.
The stakes are considerable. Mostert noted that South Africa exported approximately $504 million in agricultural products to the US in 2025, about R8.6bn at an exchange rate of R17 to the dollar. “This is a substantial trading relationship for a country that urgently needs export earnings and employment,” he said. AGOA withdrawal does not close the American market, but it removes preferential tariff treatment on qualifying products, and South Africa is already subject to recently introduced US levies. Higher duties would weaken competitiveness and pressure farmers’ profit margins, with knock-on effects for packhouses, processors, cold-storage facilities and other logistics businesses.
Meanwhile, Wandile Sihlobo, the Presidential Envoy on Agriculture and Land and chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, has quantified the tariff exposure. As the country transitions out of AGOA, it would face an additional most-favoured-nation tariff of about 3.4 percentage points on top of existing tariffs imposed by the current US administration. Some products currently entering the US at tariffs of 12.5% could face 15.9%. The US accounts for about 4% of the country’s agricultural exports.
Sihlobo framed diversification as a complement rather than a substitute. “Export diversification must be framed correctly; it is not a replacement for the US, EU, UK, Africa and other markets. These remain key, and we must work to retain access to them,” he said, pointing to growing regions such as Asia and the Middle East.
Dawie Maree, head of FNB Agriculture Marketing and Information, cautioned that alternative markets cannot be developed quickly. “Markets do not simply open up for agricultural products; it takes time to develop them. We cannot just direct products to existing markets. For example, sending more citrus to the EU could have secondary implications,” he said. He argued that government needs a clear export strategy developed in collaboration with the agricultural industry and other stakeholders. The barriers elsewhere are real: India had a simple average applied tariff of 36.4% on agricultural products in 2025, according to the World Trade Organization.
There may be a diplomatic opening. Dr Sakhile Hadebe, a political scientist at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, said the Democrats’ victory in both houses of the United States Congress gives South Africa an opening at a difficult moment in its relationship with Washington. The incoming Congress takes office in January, around the time the withdrawal is due to take effect. That timing matters for exporters already negotiating next year’s orders.
AGOA gives eligible sub-Saharan African countries preferential, including duty-free, access to the US market for qualifying goods. The programme runs through December 2028, while South Africa’s participation is subject to a separate presidential eligibility decision. Further analysis of the withdrawal and its implications is available at https://thenational.co.za/news/2026-11-07/south-african-agriculture-urged-to-diversify-markets-after-us-agoa-withdrawal/.
Dr Simphiwe Madikizela, a senior lecturer at Unisa’s Graduate School of Business Leadership, outlined where diversification efforts could focus. China offers opportunities for citrus, apples, pears, wine, nuts and other products, while India is important for fruit, nuts, wine and selected processed goods. The Middle East, which relies heavily on imported food, is particularly significant, and South Africa could explore using the UAE as a distribution and re-export hub. Africa remains the country’s largest agricultural export region, and the African Continental Free Trade Area offers a chance to deepen intra-African trade by reducing barriers and improving market access across the continent.
Whether government can secure a workable agreement before the January 2027 deadline, and account for its negotiating record in the meantime, is now the question the sector wants answered.